系列讲座(11月15日第二讲): 最优疾控的数学理论及算法 (Mathematical Theory and Algorithms for Optimal Epidemic Controlling)

发布者:赵斯达发布时间:2019-11-13浏览次数:391

统计与数据科学学院

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学术讲座



第二讲:

A new insight into isolating the high-degree nodes in network to control infectious diseases   

报告人: 靳祯 教授(山西大学) 

时间: 201911151430-1530

地点:统计与数据科学学院116教室



讲座主持人: 黄森忠教授 (智英健康数据研究中心,Nankai Univ. & Univ. Rostock)


报告摘要:

It has been a challenge to formulate network-based control measures on infectious diseases, especially on emerging diseases due to the complex network topology. Isolating high-degree nodes is the generally intuitive intervention measure. The final size and the epidemic duration are two vital evaluation indices of infectious diseases severity, but the epidemic duration has not been explicitly calculated so far in network-based models. Therefore, in this talk, we studied the effects of two measures of isolating high-degree nodes at different time—complete isolation and incomplete isolation, on two indices. We applied the reducing-dimension technique to convert the mean-field model in network into an equivalent and simpler low-dimension model, and then calculated the exact expression of the final size and the epidemic duration. We also calculated two indices explicitly in two isolation measures. It was found that, in complete isolation the final size always reduces but there exists an isolation time threshold of the epidemic duration in some cases, before that the complete isolation lengthens the epidemic duration, and otherwise shortens the epidemic duration. In contrast, in incomplete isolation the epidemic duration always increases but there exists an isolation time threshold of the final size, before which, the incomplete isolation reduces the final size, and otherwise increases the final size. This result provides a new insights into controlling infectious diseases in network.

 

报告人简介:

  靳祯,教授,博士生导师。现任山西省“疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析”重点实验室主任,山西省数学会理事长,中国生物数学学会副理事长,中国数学会理事,多个国际期刊编委,山西省科技创新团队带头人。曾获教育部新世纪优秀人才,山西省教学名师,全国优秀教师等荣誉,享受国务院政府特殊津贴。

主要从事生物数学及复杂网络研究工作,先后主持国家自然基金项目6 项,其中国家基金重点项目1 项,国家重点研发计划子项目1项。作为第一完成人,获得山西省科学技术奖(自然科学类)一等奖,教育部高等学校优秀成果二等奖奖(自然科学类)。发表SCI收录论文200余篇,有12篇论文入选ESI高被引,出版学术专著7部(合著),连续入选爱思唯尔数学高被引学者。